{
  "target": "R1",
  "section": 3,
  "version": 1,
  "status": "authored design; implementation not authorized",
  "checklist-obligation": "- [ ] **R1 belief.** **PARTIAL:** current real belief used by the same admitted model and subsequent selection. WM-02/WM-05. Built evidence: Categorical state/carry and pinned correspondence records",
  "nodes": [
    {
      "id": "R1-1",
      "pattern": "aif/belief-state-operational-hypotheses",
      "source": "/home/joe/code/futon3/library/aif/belief-state-operational-hypotheses.flexiarg",
      "source-sha256": "7f12e343b0c6878235a996680062f43014a827c10fcb01cc9e6fac69f861983f",
      "reading-url": "#source-aif--belief-state-operational-hypotheses",
      "title": "Locate the hypothesis",
      "application": "Start with the selected entity and context, not whichever belief map is easiest to read. Name the claim represented by each state and its possible contradiction. Produce a target/model binding; a registry status is context, not an observed label.",
      "status": "authored application, not executed or independently accepted"
    },
    {
      "id": "R1-2",
      "pattern": "aif/belief-state-operational-hypotheses",
      "source": "/home/joe/code/futon3/library/aif/belief-state-operational-hypotheses.flexiarg",
      "source-sha256": "7f12e343b0c6878235a996680062f43014a827c10fcb01cc9e6fac69f861983f",
      "reading-url": "#source-aif--belief-state-operational-hypotheses",
      "title": "Establish the current distribution",
      "application": "Use WM-02 to retain introduction, predecessor, admitted updates and cutoff. Produce the post-update distribution under its declared model. A prior-only row must remain labelled prior-only; missing carry cannot be repaired with uniform mass.",
      "status": "authored application, not executed or independently accepted"
    },
    {
      "id": "R1-3",
      "pattern": "wm-connected-learning/observation-to-next-choice",
      "source": "/home/joe/code/p4ng/wm-walkthroughs/collections/connected-learning/observation-to-next-choice.flexiarg",
      "source-sha256": "b0407ef81dea874d78bb7697042342d4d8023592a058d66e01e6fa4813186053",
      "reading-url": "/2026-09-15-wm-patterns-connected-learning.html#observation-to-next-choice",
      "title": "Pass that distribution into prediction",
      "application": "Bind the actual WM-05 input to the same entity, support and model revision. Produce a reader-to-predictor receipt including rejected mismatches. Logging the row beside a predictor that reads the legacy map does not establish this edge.",
      "status": "authored application, not executed or independently accepted"
    },
    {
      "id": "R1-4",
      "pattern": "wm-connected-learning/observation-to-next-choice",
      "source": "/home/joe/code/p4ng/wm-walkthroughs/collections/connected-learning/observation-to-next-choice.flexiarg",
      "source-sha256": "b0407ef81dea874d78bb7697042342d4d8023592a058d66e01e6fa4813186053",
      "reading-url": "/2026-09-15-wm-patterns-connected-learning.html#observation-to-next-choice",
      "title": "Follow the consequence into choice",
      "application": "Retain the candidate predictions, selected policy and next observation boundary. Explain an unchanged choice when appropriate. Produce same-occurrence consumer evidence, without requiring every legitimate posterior change to flip the winner.",
      "status": "authored application, not executed or independently accepted"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "R1-1",
      "to": "R1-2",
      "kind": "requires-result",
      "because": "State meaning determines which lineage belongs to this target."
    },
    {
      "from": "R1-2",
      "to": "R1-3",
      "kind": "requires-result",
      "because": "A current distribution constrains the predictor input; identities must survive conversion."
    },
    {
      "from": "R1-3",
      "to": "R1-4",
      "kind": "requires-result",
      "because": "Only predictions made from that input can support the downstream choice claim."
    },
    {
      "from": "R1-4",
      "to": "R1-1",
      "kind": "revision-feedback",
      "because": "A failed distinguishing control or consumer mismatch reopens the original scope/meaning; retain the failed claim rather than weakening it. Relevant controls: Reject wrong target, stale cutoff, lost lineage and support permutation without identity mapping. Compare consumed input hashes; include a changed belief that legitimately leaves the winner unchanged."
    }
  ],
  "dependencies": [
    "WM-02",
    "WM-05",
    "R3",
    "R6"
  ],
  "worked-situation": "A completed-looking mission has unresolved evidence. The registry says complete while independently reviewed evidence supports uncertainty. The predictor must use the admitted uncertain belief. If it reads a prior or another mission, a successful lookup has hidden the broken edge.",
  "distinguishing-controls": "Reject wrong target, stale cutoff, lost lineage and support permutation without identity mapping. Compare consumed input hashes; include a changed belief that legitimately leaves the winner unchanged.",
  "open-decisions-and-limits": "No new persistence system is prescribed. If current retention cannot supply the required lineage, identify the exact missing WM/E02 obligation before any separately authorized change.",
  "sources": [
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      "file": "/home/joe/code/p4ng/CHECKLIST-fundamentals.md",
      "sha256": "751ccfb00e4865c63734ac5147b9e6df66b48ee9697a7e20869d97a11467b81b",
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    },
    {
      "file": "/home/joe/code/futon2/holes/DESIGN-REQUIREMENTS-apex-2026-09-09.md",
      "sha256": "79228ad2299e639b427592f2eb24d4a80fadb9891271ca4bfe1211bf0a27f21c",
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    },
    {
      "file": "/home/joe/code/futon2/holes/labs/wm-contract/RULINGS-walkthrough-2026-09-07.md",
      "sha256": "e8034618d4677ccb3a2d14f4bae8f470d5499968fabebe2ee6446c516f4ea6b3",
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    {
      "file": "/home/joe/code/futon2/holes/labs/wm-contract/RULINGS-walkthrough-2026-09-09.md",
      "sha256": "94222af425799985990929fd71e8dccf988ef4ced29958a96a188198964059c7",
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    {
      "file": "/home/joe/code/futon2/holes/labs/wm-contract/RULINGS-walkthrough-2026-09-12.md",
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    {
      "file": "/home/joe/code/futon2/holes/labs/wm-contract/SPEC-cascade-policy-semantics-2026-09-15.md",
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    {
      "file": "/home/joe/code/futon2/holes/labs/wm-contract/COMPLETION-LIST-plop2026-2026-09-12.md",
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    {
      "file": "/home/joe/code/futon2/holes/labs/wm-contract/TN-row20-census-2026-09-12.md",
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    {
      "file": "/home/joe/code/futon3c/holes/excursions/apex-thesis.json",
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