{
  "target": "R4",
  "section": 3,
  "version": 1,
  "status": "authored design; implementation not authorized",
  "checklist-obligation": "- [ ] **R4 forward model.** **PARTIAL:** WM-03\u2013WM-05 on the actual cascade path, with shared dynamics. Built evidence: Channel predictor and separate machine predictor modules",
  "nodes": [
    {
      "id": "R4-1",
      "pattern": "wm-prediction/outcome-meaning-across-models",
      "source": "/home/joe/code/p4ng/wm-walkthroughs/collections/prediction/outcome-meaning-across-models.flexiarg",
      "source-sha256": "86459a7a7e33f5ef8a1c5e247e8e1d141f8bf6e53ecccb8f43294e6e1ae463c3",
      "reading-url": "/2026-09-15-wm-patterns-prediction.html#outcome-meaning-across-models",
      "title": "Bind the modeled question",
      "application": "Use WM-02/04/05 to declare state, observation and outcome meaning at each horizon step. Produce one model/policy input envelope; a signature-compatible constant bridge is not semantic correspondence.",
      "status": "authored application, not executed or independently accepted"
    },
    {
      "id": "R4-2",
      "pattern": "wm-connected-learning/same-interpretation-predicted-and-enacted",
      "source": "/home/joe/code/p4ng/wm-walkthroughs/collections/connected-learning/same-interpretation-predicted-and-enacted.flexiarg",
      "source-sha256": "8a515be0d7c4f36ccef622bdcb8c602e84426ee52139fd64f26cad0cccdf608c",
      "reading-url": "/2026-09-15-wm-patterns-connected-learning.html#same-interpretation-predicted-and-enacted",
      "title": "Resolve the interpreted dynamics",
      "application": "Use WM-03\u2019s real guards, history, order and full policy plan. Produce controlled transition inputs with measured-versus-declared provenance. Reject unhandled live actions rather than silently dropping them.",
      "status": "authored application, not executed or independently accepted"
    },
    {
      "id": "R4-3",
      "pattern": "wm-prediction/outcome-meaning-across-models",
      "source": "/home/joe/code/p4ng/wm-walkthroughs/collections/prediction/outcome-meaning-across-models.flexiarg",
      "source-sha256": "86459a7a7e33f5ef8a1c5e247e8e1d141f8bf6e53ecccb8f43294e6e1ae463c3",
      "reading-url": "/2026-09-15-wm-patterns-prediction.html#outcome-meaning-across-models",
      "title": "Compute complete predictions",
      "application": "Pass the resolved plan and actual belief through B and A over the declared schedule. Retain each step and model revision. The unused standalone machine predictor cannot stand in for the production consumer.",
      "status": "authored application, not executed or independently accepted"
    },
    {
      "id": "R4-4",
      "pattern": "wm-connected-learning/same-interpretation-predicted-and-enacted",
      "source": "/home/joe/code/p4ng/wm-walkthroughs/collections/connected-learning/same-interpretation-predicted-and-enacted.flexiarg",
      "source-sha256": "8a515be0d7c4f36ccef622bdcb8c602e84426ee52139fd64f26cad0cccdf608c",
      "reading-url": "/2026-09-15-wm-patterns-connected-learning.html#same-interpretation-predicted-and-enacted",
      "title": "Compare forecast with enactment",
      "application": "Retain the selected prediction, enacted interpretation and independent later observation. Diagnose guard/history/model mismatches at their source and preserve earlier predictions rather than rewriting them after execution.",
      "status": "authored application, not executed or independently accepted"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "R4-1",
      "to": "R4-2",
      "kind": "requires-result",
      "because": "The outcome question constrains the transition interpretation."
    },
    {
      "from": "R4-2",
      "to": "R4-3",
      "kind": "requires-result",
      "because": "Complete transition inputs make multi-step state and observation prediction possible."
    },
    {
      "from": "R4-3",
      "to": "R4-4",
      "kind": "requires-result",
      "because": "The forecast is testable only against the corresponding enactment."
    },
    {
      "from": "R4-4",
      "to": "R4-1",
      "kind": "revision-feedback",
      "because": "A failed distinguishing control or consumer mismatch reopens the original scope/meaning; retain the failed claim rather than weakening it. Relevant controls: Reject missing policy members, source-revision swaps and mixed domains; exercise persistent guards, nonfiring transitions and a valid full-policy computation."
    }
  ],
  "dependencies": [
    "WM-02",
    "WM-03",
    "WM-04",
    "WM-05",
    "R16"
  ],
  "worked-situation": "Two patterns have the same precedence but one executor allows repeats and the predictor fires once. A handoff guard deliberately left true exposes this difference. Matching pattern IDs do not rescue the predicted trajectory.",
  "distinguishing-controls": "Reject missing policy members, source-revision swaps and mixed domains; exercise persistent guards, nonfiring transitions and a valid full-policy computation.",
  "open-decisions-and-limits": "Reuse WM-03\u201305 producers; this node adds connection evidence, not another parallel predictor.",
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